AWWTM: Risk compensation and bicycle helmets

Some months ago I left a series on bicycle helmets hanging while I got distracted with other things. We had looked at what the best evidence for the efficacy of helmets in preventing injury in the event of a crash is, and some of the reasons why we should be cautious about that evidence. We found that if you’re unlucky enough to have been hospitalised while riding a bicycle, you’re less likely to be there with a head or brain injury if you were wearing a helmet at the time of the crash. We noted several ways in which this protective effect is exaggerated and used to mislead, we noted that reduction in injury is from a very low level anyway, and that the research so far done fails to provide any sub-analysis of very different riding styles, such as racing cyclists, mountain bikers, and utility cyclists.

We also made careful note of the fact that a reduction in the rate of head injury in the event of a crash is a different finding to a reduction in the rate of injury and death of bicyclists. We briefly began the exploration of what this means by considering the fact that helmets are not much defence against a motor vehicle.

How could a reduction in head injury in cyclists who crash not mean a reduction in injury and death in bicyclists?

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AWWTM: Setting ourselves up for economic collapse

In January last year, while shadow chancellor, George Osborne said that the lesson of the credit crunch is that “the economy must never again be allowed to become so structurally unbalanced and poorly prepared for a downturn.” He was referring to our national over-reliance on the banking sector, which had made a few too many dodgy investments in the United States. But the credit crunch reveals that there is something else that our economy is disastrously reliant upon, and the Royal Mail shows that we are only ever becoming more reliant upon it.

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AWWTM: Friday photo: modern mail

This is the view from my office kitchen back when I had that real job (before I gave it all up to do this instead).  The sun is rising over the city, with the Docklands towers just visible, pale in the distance between the Barbican towers.

The street in the foreground is Mount Pleasant. You can just see the Rosebury Avenue viaduct between the houses left of centre.  Just poking into shot on the left is Mount Pleasant sorting office, the central hub of the London sorting offices.

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Flat Earth News

This is another archival repost from the old blog — this time from March 2009.

The past few weeks seem to have seen laments for the decline of journalism and obituaries for old media reaching a critical mass. BoraZ has kindly collected a few dozen so that I don’t have to.

Perhaps it’s just because I’ve been reading Nick Davies’ Flat Earth News, and because Davies did the last Skeptics in the Pub, that I have been noticing that the decline of newspapers is reaching this critical stage. Davies is a Guardian investigative journalist, and he’s breaking the rules by telling us just what a state the media is in. Flat Earth News, written two years ago, before the American newspapers started going bankrupt, and British newspapers shed half their workforce, documents the many multiplicative flaws in the system of news gathering, reporting, and dissemination which cause journalists to churn out the crap the passes for newspapers these days.

Davies’ conclusion is that journalism — a noble profession of bright people — has, largely as a cost-cutting measure, been reduced tochurnalism . Instead of spending a week researching a story in great depth and telling us the important facts that we didn’t know, journalists have been reduced to rewriting a dozen wire stories and press releases each day. Journalists no longer have the time, the background knowledge, or the luxury of specialisation, required to find out whether the words they are writing bear any resemblance to reality. Nor do they have the time to establish what conflicts of interest of their sources have and whether they are hiding things — instead, the words can be reported as he-said/she-said, and the report can technically never be wrong.

Indeed, the media and public relationships industry have evolved a sophisticated mutualistic relationship. Newspapers could not fill their papers without press release writers doing all their research (and even choosing their words) for them, and in return, interested parties get their side of the story, or their product, prominently placed in the story.

M’colleague suggested that this thesis sounded a little like a conspiracy theory. I, however, am generally convinced. I am convinced because I have seen it work so many times in the field that I am familiar with — science and medicine. I have seen how the British tabloid (and even broadsheet) newspapers build their oncological ontological database from poorly written press releases. I have seen how interested parties both in industry and pressure groups place their doubt or certainty in news stories about the environment. I’ve seen the basic failure of fact-checking as elementary mistakes in press releases about newly published journal papers are faithfully replaced in all papers. I’ve even seen my own words from Wikipedia appear in The Metro‘s obituary of John Peel. And I’ve seen how successfully our own side has fought back on the media’s own terms, when Sense About Science press released their detox dossier in the slow news week after Christmas.

Flat Earth News provides the overarching explanatory theory for why so much of the news media is, to quote a comment on Friday’s Ryanair-toilets “news story” publicity stunt, “such a great lorry load of cock.” Science bloggers like a good whinge about a bad science or medicine story in the paper, but the problem is much greater than just a few humanities graduates trying to write about science. That skepticism you apply when reading the science stories needs to apply to the politics, foreign events, business, and everything else besides, because the authors of those items know no more about their subject than the humanities graduates covering science do about theirs.

Journalists can cry that democracy is not possible without them; but there’s nothing empowering about a media that churns back the press releases of government departments and military agencies. There is nothing empowering in the Daily Mail.

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AWWTM: Can drivers be taught a lesson?

M’coblogger Ed thinks there is a case for teaching drivers to behave — specifically by appeals to patriotism. Education programmes are a popular idea amongst cyclists, cash-strapped councils, and road safety types. I dismissed them as a solution that doesn’t work in my own post on revenge and road danger, but didn’t go into any detail. So I thought I better ask: what’s the best evidence we have about driver education programmes?

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AWWTM: Friday photo: social transport

It is wrong to think in terms of “private” versus “public” transport.  That is important only to the bureaucrats who have to manage transport problems and fund transport solutions.

What matters is social versus anti-social transport.

Originally posted at At War With The Motorist.

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AWWTM: Three* stone circles that are way better than Stonehenge

And now for some light diversion.  David Hembrow describes the travels and travails of a Dutch family trying to get to Stonehenge by bicycle, faced with south east England’s network of motorways and motorways-in-all-but-name.  I think I have solution to the Stonehenge cycle tour problem: don’t go to Stonehenge.  It’s a bit crap.  Stonehenge fell apart over the millennia, but the stones were stuck back upright at various times in the early 20th century.  They were still concreting it back together right up into the 1960s.  Stonehenge just looks weird, neither ruin nor full restoration.  If you go there you’ll be behind a rope on a concrete footpath, next to thousands of vehicles each hour squeezing through the bottleneck on the A303.

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AWWTM: Revenge and road danger

Almost all cycling campaigners agree that a cycling society — “mass cycling” — would be desirable. The world would be a better, happier, healthier, wealthier place, and our towns and cities nicer places to live, if far more people cycled and far more of our journeys were made by bicycle.  And there is little controversy left about the barriers to cycling and the fact that fear of traffic and hostile conditions for cycling are the biggest and most impenetrable barriers to cycling in this country.  Large volumes of fast moving and dangerously driven motor vehicles create an environment in which most people never cycle.  This is old ground I shouldn’t need to go over again.

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AWWTM: Cyclist comes out of nowhere

Catching up on my millions of saved-for-later google reader items, I was stopped by this press release advertising truck cams.  The provider of the cameras is boasting that one caught a near miss between their client Sibley Material Movements’ truck and a cyclist, which showed the truck driver to be “not at fault”.  Watch it full screen.  There are a few simple facts that can be ascertained from the video.

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AWWTM: The suburban dream

Paul says:

The post is implies, that there is a huge latent demand for cycling in the UK, which will translate into actual cycling if the infrastructure is provided. The truth is that many adults in the UK prefer to drive a car, live in a low-density suburb, and at least accept (if not prefer) a longer commuting distance. They will not cycle, regardless of what infrastructure is provided.

Perhaps some people in this country do still love their suburbs.  But most British people fell out of love with identikit low-density suburbs decades ago.

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AWWTM: Get a car, idiots

I take everything back.  I was wrong.  I realise now that in a place like Stamford Street, Southwark, the car offers outstanding convenience and time savings that will make my life better.

Now I just need to know whether to buy the Renault, which promises to save me “secs” (a reference, I understand, to the roof, which retracts in just nine of them):

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Model splicing

This is another archival repost, written for the old blog in January 2008.

The central dogma of molecular biology, first described by Francis Crick in 1958, describes the flow of information between DNA, RNA, and proteins.[1] The central dogma is interesting, but I believe that its use in teaching is somewhat misleading and gives it undue importance. If you’ve come across the central dogma before, it was probably in an undergraduate or perhaps high-school lecture, where it was casually mentioned when explaining that gene expression involves the flow of information from DNA sequence to messenger RNA, and from there to protein sequence and structure. Because we think of gene expression in terms of the information carrying molecule, introductory biology teaches gene expression in those terms: we think of it as a two step process of transcription (DNA to RNA) and translation (RNA to protein).

Gene expression is not a two step process, and of all the steps involved, transcription and translation are not necessarily the most interesting. This week’s Thursday paper is “Pre-mRNA Secondary Structures Influence Exon Recognition”,[2] by Hiller, Zhang, Backofen, and Stamm, and it looks at a particular aspect of one of the lesser known steps: alternative splicing. The story as told by introductory biology is that DNA is transcribed into messenger RNA (mRNA): a carbon copy of the information in DNA whose sole purpose is to convey the information from the precious DNA archive, which is kept safely in the nucleus, out to the sites where the proteins are produced. In fact, the result of transcription is “pre-mRNA” (or “primary transcript”), which undergoes a series of modifications before it is ready for translation. One such modification is splicing.

When researchers started examining the human genome, they were surprised at how many genes they found — eventually coming down from an estimate of hundreds of thousands, to something around 25,000. But they were sure there were far more proteins than that. The reason proteins outnumber genes is that evolution has stumbled upon an efficient way organising things: make several proteins with a single gene. Thus most genes (in “higher” organisms, anyway) are split into many “exons”, each specifying a different section of the protein sequence, and “introns” (non-coding sequences which contain metadata). Thus the protein coding sequence may be split into sections A, B, and C, and the gene may have, say, three alternative versions of each; the protein can be constructed with A1, B1, and C1, or A1, B2, and C3, or A1 and C1 alone, and so on. Splicing is the process that organises the exons. WhatHiller at al are asking is: how does the gene expression machinery know which exons to pick for the protein desired?

It has already been shown that certain sequences within the pre-mRNA, and even features on the DNA, act as signals for the splicing machinery, by altering how the RNA and splicing machinery interact. At the DNA level, alternative promoter sequences situated at different positions upstream of the gene allow the production of a variety of different primary transcripts. Then there are “enhancer” and “silencer” sites, which occur both in introns and in exons (the four are ESEs, ESSs, ISEs and ISSs), and are collectively known as splicing regulatory motifs.[3] We tend to talk about the information contained in nucleic acids in terms of nucleotide sequence. However, unlike DNA, which forms the famous double stranded helical structure, RNAs are (usually) single stranded, but can fold into a variety of 3-dimensional structures by forming double stranded sections with distant regions on the RNA strand. Often, this 3-D structure is what determines howRNAs interact with other biological molecules. So, the first question that Hiller et al asked was: what is the relationship between splicing regulatory motifs and 3-D structure?

This question is rather difficult to answer. Very few mRNA structures have been empirically determined, and the methods for determining them remain expensive and time consuming. However, enough is known about how these structures form to allow the creation of computer programs to predict likely 3-D structures. Variables affecting structure include the locations at which protein co-factors bind to the transcript, the length of the double stranded region that is formed by folding, the proximity of the sections which come together to form double stranded regions, and most importantly, energy minimisation. Using this knowledge, each nucleotide in the pre-mRNA is assigned a probability of being unpaired in the folded structure. While structure has to be estimated, the location of the regulatory motifs is on firmer ground: the AEdb database contains gene sequences for which the locations of motifs have previously been determined experimentally. Using the predicted structures of these sequences, it was found that splicing regulatory motifs are far more likely to be single stranded than the average sequence.

Indicative of something interesting, but it’s not very convincing on its own. So Hiller et al set out to show that alternative splicing is affected by the single- versus double-stranded structure of splicing regulatory motifs. They looked at the SXN-minigene, a gene whose splice variants are already well understood, and in which the effect of motif sequences on splicing has already been characterised. They engineered versions of theSXN gene which had either silencers or enhancers (or, as a control, random sequences of equal length) added either within a single stranded section or within a double-stranded section. They predicted that regulatory motifs would be less effective when hidden in double-stranded structures, and this is what they found. Enhancers, whose job is to make sure that the exon is kept, and silencers, whose job is to make sure that the exon is removed, only worked efficiently when located in single-stranded structures.

The conclusion, therefore, is that mRNA structure is part of what they call the “splicing code” (an analogy to the genetic code, which maps nucleotides to amino acids). This conclusion is nothing particularly surprising — it has long been known that many DNA and RNA interacting proteins directly interact with unpaired nucleotides.[4] But it leads me to make a hypothesis that I’d like to put to the splicing experts — I don’t have enough background in this field, and have not yet had time to read up on whether it’s a plausible hypothesis, or even a novel one. My hypothesis is this: alternative promoters cause a frame-shift of the transcript in terms of the regulatory motifs. Different promoters will therefore be associated with a different set of regulatory motifs because the transcript that they produce has a different 3-D structure. Is such a simple solution possible, and has anybody else considered it?

References

  1. Crick, F. (1970). Central Dogma of Molecular Biology. Nature 227, 561-563
  2. Hiller, M., Zhang, Z., Backofen, R., Stamm, S. (2007). Pre-mRNA Secondary Structures Influence Exon Recognition. PLoS Genetics, 3(11), e204. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgen.0030204
  3. Blencowe BJ (2000) Exonic splicing enhancers: mechanism of action, diversity and role in human genetic diseases. Trends Biochem Sci 25:106-110. (Cited in Hiller et al 2007.)
  4. e.g. S.D.Auweter, F.C. Oberstrass & F.H. Allain (2006) Sequence-specific binding of single-stranded RNA: is there a code for recognition? Nucleic Acids Res 34:4943-4959.
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AWWTM: Friday photo: a handsome Raleigh tourer

On the urban motorway that is Whitechapel.  Whitechapel should be the quintessential neighbourhood High Street: it has the tube station, the bus stops, the shops and pubs and library — sorry, “Idea Store” — and the street market that these vans supply.  As Andy Cameron would put it, Whitechapel has a very high “place status” — it is not an anonymous transport route but a destination, somewhere people go and things happen.  It’s not a part of London that I frequently have reason to visit, but every time I do it is packed with people living their lives.

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AWWTM: Return to Glasgow

While touring the hills of England and Scotland a month ago, I briefly stopped off again in Glasgow.  I think they must have read my blog and been shamed into action.  Look how the city has changed in just six months!

This is new:

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AWWTM: This pretense of neutrality

On Saturday I wrote about the leaked draft of the Tories’ coalition’s draft new planning policy document:

LAs are told to take into account existing local car ownership rates when doing this.  Fair enough, but why aren’t they also told to take into account the elasticity of modal share in the local area?

The line reminded me of the comment made recently by Andrew Boff, summarising the views of Conservative members of the London Assembly, who recently rejected the idea of a “road user hierarchy” which puts cyclists and pedestrians above motor vehicle users:

“It is true that we [the Conservatives] are, by instinct, anti-hierarchical and I agree with you that we should be making decisions to accommodate people’s choices not what we think their choices should be.”

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